Pandemic Case Simulator[ TR ]

Pandemic Case Simulator

Pandemic Case Simulator is an online pandemic case estimation tool that can be used to make predictions about bacterial or viral infections based on some parameters. You can click here for comments or questions.

The simulation starts considering the day before the initial carriers begin to infect others as the 0th day.

Parameters

• Inital number of infectious carriers: inital number of infectious individuals that are not confirmed or isolated yet
• Inital transmission rate: average number of individuals that one carrier can infect
• Incubation period (days): incubation period of the virus or the bacteria (In the simulation, persons start to show symptoms and are immediately isolated at the end of this period.)
• Infectious after (days): number of days passed since the carrier was infected when he/she starts to be infectious
• Case fatality rate: number of reported deaths per number of confirmed cases
• Days from symptoms to death: average number of days from onset of symptoms to death
• Asymptomatics rate: the ratio between asymptomatic cases and total number of cases
• Transmission period (days) and ratio on asymptomatics: number of days that asymptomatic carriers can spread virus or bacteria and the ratio between their transmission rate and symptomatic's transmission rate (both are ignored if the previous parameter is 0)
• Number of days/weeks to make predictions for: number of days or weeks for the tool to make predictions for
• Randomness and balance: noise percentage to be added to the calculations ("balance" adjusts the tendency to decrease (when <0.5) or increase (when >0.5) values)
• Changes in transmission rate: transmission rates as of the given day or week (whichever is selected above). For example, if social restrictions are implemented at 32th day and the transmission rate is 0.6 during restrictions, the statement should be 32:0.6; More than one statement can be entered (for instance to specify the transmission rate after easing the restrictions).

Outputs

• New cases: number of individuals newly infected in one day
• Confirmed: number of individuals who start to show symptomps and are isolated in one day
• Total infectious carriers: total number of individuals who are infectious but not aware of that and not isolated yet
• Deaths: number of deaths in one day

Covid-19 Estimated Parameters

• Incubation period of covid-19 is typically 4-5 days (*)
• A person who has infected starts to be contagious 48-72 hours before the symptoms appear (*)
• Although it is not clear yet, transmission rate of covid-19 is estimated to be between 1.4-2.5 (**)

(*) Harvard Medical School Coronavirus Resource Center
(**) Statement on the meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

Keywords: corona simulator, pandemic simulator, outbreak forecasting tool